Is Recent Portuguese Emigration Tapping Into a Growing Pool of University Graduates or Draining it?

Abstract

This report investigates whether recent Portuguese emigration is tapping into or draining the country’s growing pool of university graduates. We begin by analyzing aggregate data from the Observatório da Emigração to identify major destination countries and investigate recent trends in their Portuguese emigrant populations. Next, we assemble a comprehensive dataset covering Portugal and several major destination countries, integrating multiple census sources with information on university education attainment and detailed age groups. We use this to examine population and university education trends in Portugal and abroad, studying how the dynamics in the stocks of university graduates and non-graduates determine graduate rates among different birth and age groups over time. We find that graduate rates among Portuguese emigrants broadly align with those observed in Portugal for the United States, Spain, and Germany. Whereas for France, Canada, and Switzerland, we find evidence of negative educational selection. The United Kingdom stands out, showing positive educational selection and a rising relative size of its Portuguese graduate emigrant population among younger cohorts, compared to the population of graduates resident in Portugal. Overall, we find no evidence of a widespread brain drain, though some degree of brain drain is evident in the UK. However, while the UK case may raise concerns, the educational attainment of Portuguese emigrants appears more reflective of the country’s broader educational advancements than of a significant loss of talent.